The First-Second Syndrome by Orrin Carr.

As the Barclays English Premier League gets into the fourth month of its 21st season the intrigue continues to grow and debates continue intensely among experts and non-experts alike, as to who will be the champions of England at the end of the 2013-2014 season. I would like to give some insight into who that champion club may be.

As the Barclays English Premier League gets into the fourth month of its 21st season the intrigue continues to grow and debates continue intensely among experts and non-experts alike, as to who will be the champions of England at the end of the 2013-2014 season. I would like to give some insight into who that champion club may be.

Though football cannot always be predicted, there are always a few omens that suggest that ominous times may lie ahead for various clubs. One of those omens is what I call “The First Second Syndrome”. Only a few coaches in Europe have track records that suggest they can win trophies in their first season in charge of a team in any one of the Continent’s highly competitive leagues. Most coaches in Europe, in their first or second season with a team in any one of Europe’s top leagues, will usually end up without a trophy. This is what I term “The First-Second Syndrome”.

In my opinion there are 6 top clubs in England and currently, 5 of these top clubs have managers that show various symptoms of this sickness. Though “The First-Second Syndrome” can be eventually cured (depending on the patience of owners, supporters and managerial experience), it still remains in my observation, one of the primary signifiers of who the league champion in any European league maybe. These are the teams that I think will not win the English Premier League this season because their managers suffer from the sickness. A couple of these managers (as I will illustrate) have track records that point to other inabilities that accompany “The First-Second” Syndrome. The managers are in no specific order and goes as follows:

Andre Villas Boas

Villas Boas is in his second season with Tottenham. He is also at his second club in England. His previous job was at Chelsea where he was sacked in less than a season. England is the second country in which he has worked as a manager. His situation highlights overt symptoms of “The First-Second Syndrome”. He will not win the league.

Jose Mourinho

This is in his second stint with Chelsea. It is also his first return to the club making this his first season since he left back in 2007. In between his stints, Chelsea has had 8 managers all adding their own players to a growing squad base. This has added to the instability at club for the latest installment of managers as they have had to deal with players that they didn’t buy and don’t necessarily need. Mourinho may not go trophy-less this season but I doubt he will win the league.

Brendan Rodgers

The manager of Liverpool is in his second season with club. Already you can see that he has symptoms of “The First-Second Syndrome”. Liverpool is his first “big club” and he is still learning how to beat rivaling “big clubs” such as Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenl while also finding it difficult to defeat the lesser talented teams. He will not win the league this season.

Manuel Pellegrini

Manchester City’s manager is still adjusting to the Premier League in this his first Season. Along with having “The First-Second Syndrome”, Pellegrini’s track record as a manager also points to his inability to manage teams with big bank books. Pellegrini, since arriving in Europe in 2004, has proven himself to be good at building formidable units (teams that do not have a big bank book but still manages to be competitive consistently). That’s where his success lies. He has done well with clubs such as Villareal in Spain, taking them to the Champions League semifinals in 2005-2006 season and also the Quarterfinals in 2008-2009 (on both occasions he lost to Arsenal). His time with Villareal also saw him finishing the 2008-2009 La Liga season in second position a head of Real Madrid.

Pellegrini also managed Malaga (another formidable unit he built), getting them to the Champions league quarter finals (2012-2013) where they were on the verge of beating eventual finalists, Borussia Dortmund, only to concede two late goals and lose the game. Under his tenure Malaga finished 4th and 6th in two of his three seasons in charge of the club. He eventually went on to manage Real Madrid, a team with a very big bank roll and arguably one of the best clubs in the world. He lasted just one season after which he was sacked for his poor performance. He will not win the English Premier league this season. Not only does he have “The First-Second Syndrome” but he will also be handicapped by the big money Manchester City factor. His poor start to the season confirms this. I also do not expect him to last long at an impatient club like Manchester City.

David Moyes

Manchester United’s David Moyes will be the most evident example of “The First-Second Syndrome”. He will not succeed (nor will get a chance to) if he tries to “Evertonize” Manchester United by trying to make them into a formidable unit. Both Moyes and Pellegrini have similar situations. They both have built formidable units (Moyes with Everton, Pellegrini with Villareal and Malaga). Both are in their first season with clubs that originate in the same city ( Manchester) and both will not win the 2013-2014 EPL season. Pellegrini has already defeated Moyes in their first Manchester derby but, if Manchester City isn’t planning to do some time without  the league trophy, then David Moyes will be the one sticking around for more derbies.

The 5 coaches listed above all have “The First-Second Syndrome”, some more than others. However as I had stated earlier, there are, in my opinion, 6 top clubs in The English Premier League.

The only top club with a manager that has no symptoms of “The First-Second Syndrome” is Arsenal.

Their manager, Arsene Wenger, has been at the club for a period surpassing the last five seasons and the fact that he is free of “The First-Second Syndrome”  puts him in an advantageous position (as evidenced by the fact that at the time this article was being written Arsenal was at the top of the EPL.). The majority of his squad comprises of players he has molded (and still molding) while splashing some cash on a team player-superstar in the form of Mesut Ozil. The title is for Arsene Wenger to lose. It is in his hands and only he can cause his own demise.

Photo: Arsene Wenger (Getty Images)